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PREDICTION-MARKET FORENSIC RESEARCH & INVESTIGATIONS

Prediction markets, reconstructed from the underlying record.

MSR Decode investigates prediction-market trading, profit and loss (PnL), settlement, market data, and fund flows. We explain what the records show and what remains uncertain.

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Our work supports legal, compliance, institutional research and diligence teams, while our public research systematically tests the market structures behind those questions.

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SELECTED FORENSIC WORK

Selected forensic work.

Different questions. Different outcomes.

Material corrections to published findings are dated and remain visible rather than being silently overwritten.

EVERY MARKET COUNTED, NOT A SAMPLEExact census

Recycled volume in the study scope

Case ref.
MSR-CASE-09 Published
Domain
Market Data · Trading Conduct
Universe
1,351,870 markets · 463,018,840 fills
Evidence
Polygon on-chain; 928-market list published

Across the markets studied, excluding U.S. election markets, 928 had at least half their volume from repeated trading between pairs of accounts. The qualifying markets contained $506.4M of recycled trading; the full study scope contained $540.6M.

MARKET MICROSTRUCTURE · TRADE RECONSTRUCTION · DATA PROVENANCE

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WHAT WE INVESTIGATE

Questions the underlying record can answer.

We investigate wallets, accounts, individual markets, market groups, trading claims, reported PnL and volume, fund flows, and data quality. Every engagement starts with a question, not a conclusion.

From record to findingTraceable at every stage
  1. Establish the recordProvenance · semantics · completeness
  2. Reconstruct & challengeActivity · alternatives · materiality
  3. Document the findingConclusion · limitations · reproduction
  • Does this reported PnL survive complete economic reconstruction?Cost basis, fees and settlement rebuilt fill by fill
  • What mechanism actually generated this market’s reported activity?Directional, arbitrage, market-making, reward-farming, or churn
  • Did unusual trading precede the relevant public information?Position timing against the market’s own clock
  • Is an apparent relationship between accounts supported by transaction evidence?Funding paths tested against a stated null model
  • Is an anomaly real, or caused by incomplete or misleading venue data?Our own pipeline is the null hypothesis
  • What does the record establish — and what remains unproven?“Insufficient evidence” is a finding we publish
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WHO THIS SUPPORTS

Specialist research for consequential questions.

Legal, Disputes & Investigations

For counsel and in-house legal teams: independent reconstruction when a prediction-market record becomes part of a dispute or investigation.

Market Integrity & Compliance

For platforms, risk and compliance teams: independent review when a surveillance flag, unusual activity or a data-quality question needs an outside reconstruction.

Corporate & Internal Investigations

For corporate compliance officers and internal-investigations leads: the external market evidence for an internal investigation, reconstructed independently.
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MSR also works with institutional research and diligence teams — see Institutional Research & Diligence ↗.

PREDICTION-MARKET INTEGRITY RESEARCH

Individual cases surface mechanisms. Integrity research tests whether they recur.

We investigate wallets, accounts, markets, trading claims, reported profit and volume, fund flows, and data quality. We explain what the records show and what remains uncertain. Public research develops reusable methods, datasets, and prediction-market-specific knowledge that support later forensic work.

  • Settlement & Resolution
  • Contract Design
  • Price Formation
  • Market Data & Disclosure
  • Trading Conduct
  • Surveillance & Controls
  • Financial Mechanics
  • Cross-Market Dependencies

The recycled-volume census is published as a case report. No report has yet been published in the separate Integrity Test format described on our Integrity Research page.

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HOW MSR INVESTIGATES

How we reach a finding.

Ten investigative standards guide every investigation. Steps may be revisited when new evidence emerges. Each is documented on the methodology page.

  • 01 Question
  • 02 Provenance
  • 03 Semantics
  • 04 Completeness
  • 05 Reconstruction
  • 06 Alternatives
  • 07 Materiality
  • 08 Conclusion
  • 09 Reproduction
  • 10 Corrections
Read the full methodology →
SAMPLE WORK PRODUCT

See the work product.

An illustrative MSR forensic memorandum shows how a bounded question moves from source records to reconstruction, alternative explanations, finding and limitations.

Sample MSR Forensic MemorandumIllustrative

Built entirely from the published bnb-5min.html case — not a client engagement.

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Evidence of process

MSR's public record makes the analytical process inspectable through disclosed methodology, reproducible workpapers, dated corrections, source-linked case records and published null findings.

The mandate is what the record supports, not a predetermined outcome: established, not reproduced, alternative explanation identified, not established, or data-limited are all valid, equally published findings.

Methodology the ten-step standard applied to every investigation
Reproducible workpapers supporting calculations, methodology and provenance preserved where available
Dated corrections material changes remain visible rather than being silently overwritten
Independence policy a verdict here cannot be bought

Secondary: MSR filed a public comment on a CFTC data-reporting rulemaking — docket entry ↗ — engagement with the field, not independent validation of MSR's work.

DISCUSS A MATTER

Tell us what you are trying to establish.

MSR reviews the question, available records, scope and appropriate work product before accepting an engagement.

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